The Case for Gerrymandering California
If you can't have fairness, balance is the next-best thing.
(Before we get started, a note about last week’s post. Adam Ondra, the Czech climber who’s the best in the world, failed to medal at the Olympics. Somewhat predictably, given the quirky rules, the gold went to a speed-climbing specialist.)
There are few people I dislike more than Dr. Ronny Jackson. I’ve written about him before - back when I was at the White House and he was the medical officer assigned to be the president’s personal physician, he used to hang out backstage during speeches or stroll from cabin to cabin in Air Force One dispensing sleeping pills.
At the time, I was flattered by Jackson’s banter and man-cave charm. Then a few years later, as I watched him blatantly lie about Trump’s weight, parlay that sycophancy into a nomination to run the Department of Veterans Affairs, and fail to be confirmed amid a flurry of accusations of abusive behavior, I reached a different conclusion: Ronny Jackson is the kind of person so devoid of principle and so committed to ass-kissing that he would flatter a junior speechwriter on the off-chance it might help him get ahead.
In Trump’s Republican Party, those people are called “rising stars,” and now Ronny Jackson is a congressman from Texas.
But the reason I mention Ronny Jackson in this post is not general loathing. It’s highly specific loathing. This week, in keeping with his generally scummy demeanor, he bragged that Republicans could gerrymander their way to control of Congress.
First off, think about how gross this is. Jackson, and plenty of his fellow GOP politicians, are excited about the prospect of earning power without persuading anyone that their ideas are any good. They look at states like Wisconsin or Michigan - where Republicans have won a majority of state legislative seats despite losing the popular vote - as an inspiration rather than a cautionary tale.
Second, and more important, Jackson is wrong. Yes, Republicans have a huge, natural advantage in redistricting, but Democrats have agency here, too.
The problem is that lots of Democrats have used that agency in a way that maintains good-government purity but ignores political reality. In theory, statewide independent redistricting commissions sound non-partisan, but as it currently stands they merely add to the GOP advantage in Congress.
Let me put this more bluntly. Gerrymandering is bad. But gerrymandering red states while leaving blue states un-gerrymandered is even worse.
A very quick explanation of two important terms. First, the “trifecta.” That just means that a single party controls both houses of a state’s legislature plus the governor’s mansion. If neither party has a trifecta, they have to negotiate with each other when districts are done.
Second, “redistricting commission.” This is just a group of people who are either non-partisan, bipartisan, or both, who are required to draw reasonable districts. “Reasonable” can be defined in a variety of ways, but still: states with commissions can’t engage in blatant partisan gerrymanders.
Commissions have become much more popular in certain parts of the country in recent years. People who are cynical about politicians (i.e., most people) probably can’t imagine politicians willingly giving up power - but that’s exactly what’s happened.
In other cases, redistricting commissions were imposed on politicians by voters through ballot measures, because gerrymandering is extremely unpopular among actual people, even in places where it’s quite popular among elected officials.
But these commissions are not evenly distributed. At the moment, Democrats hold a trifecta in states totaling 177 congressional districts. Republicans have a trifecta in states totalling 184 districts. But 95 of those blue-trifecta districts are drawn by commissions, compared to just 13 for Republicans. The biggest red state in the country, Texas, can be gerrymandered by Republicans. The biggest blue state in the country, California, will be carved up into nonpartisan districts by an independent commission.
We can debate whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, but it’s a thing. And in just these two states, it will cost Democrats a net of four Congressional seats.
The best possible solution, in my view, would be for Congress to pass HR1, which would mandate independent commissions nationwide. The second-best solution is for Texas to stop drawing partisan districts on its own.
But since the former might not happen, and the latter is definitely not going to happen, not going to happen, we need to figure out the third-best possible solution. The GOP is going to do whatever it can to win control of Congress through gerrymandering - how do we respond?
In my view, that’s pretty clear. We ditch the statewide independent commissions and cancel out GOP gerrymanders with Democratic ones.
I don’t want to overstate how much cancelling out Democrats could actually do. Because Democratic voters tend to be clustered in cities, it’s not always easy to draw lopsided maps, even if we wanted to. But we could do much more map-making than we’re currently doing.
And if we care about good government, we should do more map-making. We could either live in a country where Kevin McCarthy is Speaker of the House, with the ability to decertify (or at least attempt to decertify) the 2024 presidential election, despite his party not winning a majority of votes for Congress. Or we could live in a country where individual congressional districts are less fair, but the party running the entire Congress accurately reflects the will of the American people. Neither version is perfect, or even close to perfect - but I know which imperfection I’d prefer.
Also, just because we decide to live in the real world doesn’t mean we need to abandon our principles. We should keep the independent redistricting commissions for state legislatures in blue states, where there’s nothing to cancel out, and remove them only for federal map-making. Blue trifecta states like Virginia should invite red trifecta states like Georgia to hold hands and draw fair districts together, thus preserving fairness without losing balance.
Most importantly, we should make clear that our ultimate goal isn’t to perfect gerrymandering, it’s to end it. Let’s say Democrats reach the point Ronny Jackson has currently reached, where we believe we can win control of Congress through gerrymandering alone. Rather than gleefully grabbing power, we should use that leverage to bring Republicans to the table and pass an HR1-like bill that would mandate non-partisan mapmaking nationwide.
Gerrymandering matters a lot. But the broader idea here matters even more. We need fairness in our democracy - but if conservative judges and GOP legislators make fairness impossible, balance is the next thing. Because the last thing we want is for people like Ronny Jackson to lose elections and get to run the country anyway.
(Btw, I found some of those old Air Force One sleeping pills in a medicine cabinet the other day. Anyone know if those things expire?)
David
P.S. Thanks to a subscriber suggestion, I’ll be doing a whole series soon on “Where should I donate my $25?” If you have thoughts/questions/ideas of your own, send them my way!
David,
California is filled with possibilities for so many federal democratic reforms such as senate reform, house reform, electoral college reform, supreme court reform and gerrymandering reform. When strategizing hypothetical ways to work around anti-democratic processes California is at the front of the line. Being one of the largest state-nations in the world has that effect.
My next article is about gerrymandering and I would be interested in your thoughts on gerrymandering in California. Besides generally covering the concept I will delve into more novel aspects of gerrymandering and this concept is a interesting thought experiment.
Given the bizarre nature of 21st century American political partisanship reform is not going to happen anytime soon. The only option it seems is to develop workaround strategies.
If interested, send me an e-mail.
Adam
politics@politicsmachine.com
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